Developing a framework for risk-based surveillance of tuberculosis in cattle: a case study of its application in Scotland

Due to its substantially lower prevalence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) relative to other areas of Great Britain, Scotland was designated as an officially (bovine) TB-free region in 2009. This paper investigates resultant possibilities for reducing surveillance by developing risk-based alternatives to current 4-year testing of eligible herds. A model of freedom of infection was used to develop strategies that specifically tested herds that are at risk of infection but would probably not be identified by slaughterhouse meat inspection. The performance of current testing is mimicked by testing all herds that slaughter fewer than 25% of their total stock per year and regularly import animals from high-incidence areas of England and Wales or from Ireland. This system offers a cost reduction by requiring 25% fewer herd and animal tests and 25% fewer false positives.